Saturday, April 14, 2007

Apply pressure, observe physics at work.

When the “surge strategy” was first announced, I took a look at it in order to determine if/how it might affect what I was doing out in Iraq. The selfish part of me determined no real effect in terms of my deployment time. But I may be affected by what the military likes to call 2d and 3d order effects. The strategy calls for large numbers of military personnel to go to Baghdad en masse. They should then be able to not only clear areas of the city, but also hold and then improve those areas.

As I thought about how this would play out, I tried to think about what the insurgents might do in response to the Al Qanoon efforts. If I were them, I’d just go somewhere else. Perhaps south- to where I may be in the Wasit province. And sure enough, that is where some reports suggest some of them are headed- the experienced insurgents and terrorists are headed our way! Woo-hoo! Some cynics call this strategy “whack-a-mole”, which I find an amusing and interesting way of describing what I would find a natural response were I an insurgent. Block me here, I go somewhere else. You can’t cover everywhere, the American people would never allow enough U.S. soldiers to deploy to cover the entire country.

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